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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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