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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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