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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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