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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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