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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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