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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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