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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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