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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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