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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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