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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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