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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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