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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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