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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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