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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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