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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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