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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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