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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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