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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
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