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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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