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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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