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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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