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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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