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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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