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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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