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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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