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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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