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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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