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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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