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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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