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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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