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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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