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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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