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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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