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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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