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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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