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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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