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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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