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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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