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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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