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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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