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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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