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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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