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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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