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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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