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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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