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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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