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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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