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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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