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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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