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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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