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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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