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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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