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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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