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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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