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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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