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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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