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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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